The Halstead Prize shortlist is always an argument in the shape of a list, and this year’s is no exception. Six books, and at least three plausible winners.

Selim Farouk’s The Weight of Water is the presumed favorite, but juries have a habit of resisting the obvious.

The contenders

Adaeze Okafor’s debut is the wild card — rarely does a first novel reach this stage. Its presence alone signals a jury willing to reward control over scale.

"A shortlist is a thesis about the year," a former judge told us. "This one argues for restraint."

The winner is announced next month.